Year: 2008

[I know this post will interest almost no one who regularly reads my blog, but it may help someone out there experiencing a similar problem]

One of my clients moved from PC to Mac back in December, and installed Parallels so that they could continue to use QuickBooks Pro 2005 to do process their payroll direct deposit. [When will Intuit bring feature parity to the Mac version???] Everything worked fine for several pay periods, but at the end of January it broke: the session would start, it would get 10% done, then
fail. The initial call to Intuit resulted in them claiming at first not to support QuickBooks under Parallels (contradicting what they had told the client before the switch), then trying lots of different approaches, culminating in Intuit resetting the payroll account on their end, which got things working. Two weeks later, though, the same thing happened.

More woe and final redemption after the jump.
(more…)

Why prices rise (by Russell Roberts):

Steve Mufson at the Washington Post is bewitched, bothered, and bewildered about why oil prices keep rising. The headline:

Skyrocketing Oil Prices Stump Experts

The article begins:

Confused about oil prices? So are the experts.

Executives from the giant oil companies say it’s partly the fault of “speculators” or financial players. Key financial players say it’s really a question of limited supply and expanding global demand. Some members of Congress accuse the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries for bottling up some of its production capacity. And OPEC blames speculators, wasteful U.S. consumers and feckless U.S. policy.

Almost everyone points at China’s growing appetite for fuel.

Whatever the causes, one of the most dizzying runs in the history of oil prices picked up pace yesterday — again — as crude oil prices jumped to settle at more than $133 a barrel, up $4.19 in one day, 18 percent so far this month and more than one-third so far this year.

Prices climbed even higher in late electronic trading.

After a few paragraphs explaining the impacts of the higher prices, the Post quotes an expert who does have a theory:

But the bigger question is: What has been driving the doubling of prices over the past year even as U.S. demand has stagnated and global output has continued without any major new disruption?

“The basic story that has brought oil from $20 to $130 dollars is that world demand is growing robustly when world supply is not,” argued Jeffrey Rubin, chief economist of CIBC World Markets. “As a result, we need ever-higher world oil prices to kill demand in the [industrialized countries], which is exactly what’s happening.”

While U.S. demand has leveled off, Rubin said, demand in China is growing at a 12 percent rate, more than the 8 percent rate he forecast. While the extra increase in China is probably because of short-term factors, such as the earthquake or hoarding by the government in preparation for the Olympics, Rubin said even the lower rate would keep world demand growing briskly.

Hmmm. Seems pretty straightforward, doesn’t it? Rubin doesn’t seem stumped. I’m not sure why this article was written. I think the author wants one reason. China. Speculation. Greed. (Or more accurately, an increase in greed.) But the simplest explanation is that world demand is growing briskly and world supply is not as responsive.

If we want low gas prices, we should lower the costs of exploration and refining. If lowering those costs has environmental costs you don’t like, stop complaining and get on your bicycle.

Hanger stakes:

NPR delivers a scoop from the world of dry cleaning:

If you think your dry cleaning bills are high now, hang on. Wire hangers are getting more expensive due to import tariffs on cheaper hangers from China. So dry cleaning operators are asking customers to return their hangers to help keep costs down.

Brandon Fuller does the relevant maths:

According to the NPR story, there are roughly 30,000 dry cleaners in the U.S., and on average, each pays an additional $4,000 per year due to the hanger tariff. This indicates an average annual cost of 30,000 firms x $4,000 per firm = $120 million. According to the U.S. International Trade Commission's report, U.S. employment in wire hanger manufacturing was 564 workers in 2004 and fell to 236 workers by 2006. Let's assume that employment in this sector would have fallen to zero in the absence of the tariff, and that with the tariff, employment will recover to 2004 levels. In other words, assume the tariff “saves” 564 jobs. Dividing the cost of the tariff to U.S. dry cleaners ($120 million year) by the number of jobs saved (564 jobs) indicates that each job saved costs about $212,765 per year. Keep in mind that the typical full-time worker in this sector earns about $30,000 per year. Even if we assume that industry employment doubles, the cost of the tariff is still roughly $120,000 per job.

But as Mr Fuller notes, the added cost per worker is distributed across all dry-cleaning customers a penny at a time, making it difficult and irrational for any group of customers to organise and challenge the tariff.
I have to say, I'm also a little amazed at the fact that America would employ several hundred people at $30,000 per year to produce more of what must be one of the most abundant substances on earth. I have several hundred tonnes of wire hangers at the bottom of my closet, easily enough to supply a major metropolitan area for several years. It is remarkable that dry cleaners find it cheaper to purchase new wire hangers than to offer a small incentive to customers for the return of old ones. 
(Hat tip: Marginal Revolution)

Greg Phillips, Sears technician, came over to address the problems we were having with our new Kenmore deep tub dishwasher. We got it to replace a 10+ year old machine that was loud as all get-out. The Kenmore 13842 came very-highly rated, but we were getting lousy results: dingy glasses, streaks on everything. Greg says that the machine is fine, but need to do the following:

• Make sure the hot water coming in is at least 120º from the faucet, and 130º is better (since the stainless steel tub will cool the water. Older models used more water, and the new ones use water that is just in the supply line, so it never gets hot. Run the water in the sink until it gets nice and hot, then start the dishwasher.
• Use powder soap, instead of the liquid based detergents, which are wax-based. Tablets are best, but you can’t measure more or less.
• Do not open the door during the wash cycle, because it interrupts the heating of the water, and will cause it to go into a default (clean light will flash seven times). To secure that, push normal-dry-normal-dry-normal-dry.
• Rinse dishes off: it doesn’t dispose of food as it says it does. Otherwise, you get to buy a new motor.
• Make sure to use Jet-Dry; it really helps with drying (it reduces the surface tension of the water, helping it to sheet off the dishes; also, in new dishwashers the heating elements are lower wattage than older units).
• See Low-flow toilet for comparison of “energy savings”. 😉