This article, if its polling numbers are correct, comes to some strange conclusions
globeandmail.com: It’s all panic on the leftist front in France
Parties and voters have both realized this week that there is a very real possibility of two right-wing candidates contesting the presidency, even though most French voters lean to the left. To prevent such an outcome, the major left-wing and centrist candidates have been scrambling to strike a deal that could prevent the moderate vote from being demolished by the half-dozen tiny parties that chip away at its base. That is what happened in 2002, when only conservative Jacques Chirac and ultra-right-wing leader Jean-Marie Le Pen were left on the final ballot.
That could easily happen again this year, with Socialist leader Ségolène Royal (who the latest polls show at 25 per cent) being bumped off the ballot by either the ultra-rightist Mr. Le Pen (13 per cent) or centre-right candidate François Bayrou (19 per cent), killing her bid to unseat the front-runner, right winger Nicolas Sarkozy (27 per cent). The half-dozen fringe, leftist candidates like Mr. Bové all are polling below 5 per cent, but their combined numbers make up 15 per cent of the electorate.
If these figures are correct, then 25 + 13 + 19 + 27 + 15 = 99%, leaving 1% undecided, and the majority (13 + 19 + 27 = 59%) favoring right or center-right candidates, directly contradicting the statement about the left-leaning electorate. But the article then goes on to say:
But between 30 and 40 per cent of voters remain undecided, and many could vote for one of the small parties instead of Ms. Royal. Eighty per cent of the people who intend to vote for the “third candidate,” the centrist Mr. Bayrou (19 per cent), say they are just as likely to back one of the other major candidates, but Ms. Royal’s aides say that Mr. Bayrou could steal enough voters from her to knock her out of the election.
If 30-40% remain undecided, then those first numbers must be those who express a preference (never mentioned in the article), and the actual numbers for the candidates are 16-18% for Royal, 8-9% for Le Pen, 12-14% for Bayrou, 16-19% for Sarkozy, and 9-11% for the field, with Undecided leading the pack by a large margin.
There’s a better article in Slate, written by Christopher Hitchens, detailing what’s going on. First, French voters hate to tell pollsters that they’re voting Right. Second, Sergolene Royale doesn’t even know that the Taliban doesn’t legitimately rule Afghanistan any more –which helps explain why she is trailing Sarkozy so badly.
http://www.slate.com/id/2164275/
(via the Volokh Conspiracy)
Found a better set of numbers from Le Parisien, which looks like where the G&M got their figures. The CSA poll shows21% still to make up their minds. The G&M’s claim of a left-leaning electorate sure sounds like they haven’t been paying attention.